In the 2024 Irish general election, held on November 29, the centrist Fianna Fáil and conservative Fine Gael parties have maintained their political dominance, securing enough seats to continue their coalition government. This outcome reflects the electorate’s preference for stability amid global economic uncertainties and domestic challenges.

Election Results and Coalition Prospects

Preliminary results indicate that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael collectively garnered over 80 seats, just shy of the 88 required for a parliamentary majority. This necessitates negotiations with smaller parties or independent Teachtaí Dála (TDs) to form a stable government. Sinn Féin, the main opposition party, secured approximately 40 seats, insufficient to form a government without significant coalition partners.

Micheál Martin, leader of Fianna Fáil, expressed confidence in returning to government, stating there is a “clear route back to government.” Fine Gael’s leader, Simon Harris, acknowledged the electorate’s decision, emphasizing the need for collaboration to address pressing national issues.

Economic Factors Influencing the Vote

Ireland’s robust economic performance played a pivotal role in the election outcome. The nation boasts a projected €24 billion budget surplus, primarily due to substantial corporate tax revenues from multinational corporations. This financial cushion has enabled the government to implement cash handouts and invest in infrastructure, mitigating the impact of the global cost-of-living crisis on Irish citizens.

The Wall Street Journal noted that this economic stability has “shielded Irish voters from the global cost-of-living crisis,” contributing to the re-election of the incumbent parties.

Decline of Anti-Immigration Sentiment

Despite a surge in anti-immigration sentiment following incidents such as the 2023 Dublin riots, anti-immigration candidates failed to make significant electoral gains. An exit poll revealed that only 6% of voters considered immigration the most important campaign issue, with housing and homelessness taking precedence at 28%.

Sky News reported that anti-immigration candidates “appeared to flounder and make little impact in the general election,” suggesting that the electorate prioritized other pressing concerns over immigration.

Challenges Ahead

The re-elected coalition faces formidable challenges, notably the housing crisis and rising immigration. The housing shortage has been a persistent issue, with escalating property prices and rents affecting affordability. Addressing this crisis requires comprehensive policies to increase housing supply and ensure affordability.

Immigration, while not a decisive electoral issue, remains a topic of public discourse. The government must balance humanitarian responsibilities with effective integration policies to maintain social cohesion

The 2024 Irish general election underscores the electorate’s desire for continuity and effective governance. The sustained support for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael reflects confidence in their stewardship during economically prosperous yet challenging times. As coalition talks progress, the focus will be on forming a government capable of addressing housing shortages, managing immigration, and sustaining economic growth.

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