The day after the polls close, the focus shifts from voting to governance. With no single party likely to win an outright majority in Ireland’s general election, coalition talks are expected to dominate the political landscape. As votes are counted and results trickle in, here’s an overview of the parties likely to engage in negotiations to form a coalition government.

Why Coalitions Are the Norm in Ireland

Ireland’s electoral system, Proportional Representation by Single Transferable Vote (PR-STV), often results in a fragmented vote where no one party holds an outright majority. This makes coalition governments a regular feature of Irish politics, requiring parties to negotiate alliances to secure the majority needed to govern.

Key Players in the 2024 Election

1. Fianna Fáil (FF):
   With strong voter support and a slight lead in recent polls, Fianna Fáil is expected to play a central role in coalition negotiations. Their focus on stability and continuity may appeal to smaller parties seeking to avoid uncertainty.
2. Sinn Féin (SF):
   Sinn Féin’s surge in popularity makes them a potential driving force in forming a government. They may look to partner with left-leaning parties or independents to deliver their ambitious housing and social reform agenda.
3. Fine Gael (FG):
   As a current coalition partner with Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael may push to maintain this alliance while countering Sinn Féin’s rise. Their focus on economic stability could appeal to smaller parties with centrist leanings.
4. The Green Party:
   Known for their role in past coalitions, the Greens may once again hold the balance of power. Their emphasis on climate action could shape coalition agreements.
5. Independents and Smaller Parties:
   Independents and smaller groups such as Labour and the Social Democrats often play crucial roles in coalition talks, adding their specific priorities to the negotiation table.

Potential Coalition Scenarios

1. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael:
   This coalition, which has governed Ireland in recent years, could continue if both parties secure enough seats. While effective in delivering stability, this partnership may face criticism for lacking fresh ideas.
2. Sinn Féin and Left-Leaning Allies:
   Sinn Féin could join forces with left-leaning parties like Labour or the Social Democrats, alongside independents, to create a progressive coalition focused on housing and social reforms.
3. Grand Coalition:
   If results are especially tight, a broader coalition involving multiple parties, including the Greens, may emerge as a compromise to ensure stability.

Challenges in Forming a Coalition

Coalition negotiations can be complex and time-consuming, with several key challenges:

• Policy Alignment: Parties must reconcile differences in policies, particularly on contentious issues like housing, immigration, and taxation.
• Leadership Disputes: Deciding who will lead the coalition and take the role of Taoiseach can be a significant sticking point.
• Public Perception: Parties must consider how their alliances will be viewed by their voter base, as unpopular coalitions can lead to backlash in future elections.

What Happens Next?

Once the final results are in, party leaders will engage in talks to negotiate terms for a coalition agreement. This process can take weeks, as parties work to finalise policy commitments and allocate key positions within the government.

Ireland’s political landscape is on the brink of change, with coalition talks likely to dominate headlines in the coming weeks. As Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Sinn Féin, and smaller parties navigate these negotiations, the shape of the next government will depend on their ability to find common ground.

While the outcome remains uncertain, one thing is clear: coalition-building will play a pivotal role in determining Ireland’s path forward.